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Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Early election call

Last September, this blog was the first to call the Republican nomination for Mitt Romney.

In that same spirit, this blog is now calling the general election for Romney as well.

Despite the fact that Intrade has the odds of Obama winning at 59.9% (vs. 38.3% for Romney), there is just too much sentiment built up against the President. He has lost the independents, who are crucial for his election. Young people are no longer as enthusiastic. And black people, his most dependable voting bloc, are projected to show up in smaller numbers than they did for the historic 2008 election.

There may also be further revelations about Obama's background which would further alienate the electorate. These may have to do with the provenance of his birth certificate, or who paid for his college education, or why he is not registered as a lawyer in the state of Illinois. But given the effort which has gone into sealing his records, academic and otherwise, an October surprise would not be surprising.

So far, the best they've been able to come up with about Romney is that some of the multitude of companies he bought and sold fired some people, and that he once transported his dog on top of a car.

So this blog declares Romney the winner.

You heard it here first.


Anonymous said...

John -- Which candidate do you think would be most likely to keep us out of another Iraq-type war? And do you think Obama’s off-mic comment about having more freedom after the second election was over reflected just the reality of things, or hinted at some surprises ahead?

John Craig said...

Julie --
Honestly, much as I hate him, I think Obama would be more likely to keep us out of war during the next four years, though he would also allow situations to fester which could be worse further down the road.

I do think if Obama gets reelected that he won't bother with paying any sort of lip service to any centrist notions. What he's done so far is talk centrist but govern leftist. A good example would be how he said he was going to pick a Supreme Court nominee who was a strict Constitutionalist and who wouldn't legislate from the bench, then he named Sonia Sotomayor. And there's a very, very long list of instances where he's said one thing and done another. After 2012, if he's still Prez, he won't even bother to hide his true colors.